Very good questions, and there are no simple answers.
Will Iraq transition to a new diplomatic governement run by the laws and constitutions of US and Britan?
It this is so, its almost better that there isn't any other support from other countries who will be vieing for their government to run Iraq. Now that the UN does not support this gives them no rights as US and Britan take over. Am I right?
I'll try to be brutally frank here.
We do not want to get into the business of running Iraq. We do not want to install any puppet leader. Take a look at the post Shah Iran to see what can happen. What we really want to do is teach the Iraqi people how to set up their own democratic government. The process will look something like what is going on in Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban government.
The Iraqis themselves will have to decide whether to form a secular government, or form something like a theocracy. Personally I believe that when you look at how badly theocracies treat people in Islamic governments, it's all the more reason to tell the Christians to go home here in the U.S. I am a firm believer in Jefferson's ideal of freedom of religion and freedom FROM religion. But...I digress a bit. The Iraqis will have to figure all that out. And it won't be easy. You have mostly Sunni Kurdish Muslims in the north, mostly Sunni Arab Muslims in central Iraq, and mostly Shiite Arab Muslims in the south. Those folks are not fond of each other. It's all the more reason for them to adopt Jefferson's principles but... It should be their decision.
We might want the rest of the world to join in rebuilding Iraq, and we might not. The pros for getting them involved is that they (the UN et al) will help pay the tab. The cons come along with the influence and petty bickering. While I do not condone us (Britain and the US) overly influencing the politics of Iraq once they are on their feet, I'm all for US and British industries winning 100% of the rebuilding contracts should the US and the British put their butts on the line in the battlefield. To the victor goes the spoils, even when the victor is benevolent. France and Russia - the two countries with the greatest economic ties to Iraq today - can go to Hades. Their protests and activisim (mostly the French) have nothing to do with loving peace. It's all about money - period. France had its chance. They can take their contracts and debts and eat them. But don't ask me what I REALLY think...
The greatest benefit to the war in Iraq is what it will do to the entire area. This could potentially do to dictatorships in the Middle East what the fall of the Berlin Wall did to Communism in the world. Representational governments are less likely to starve their people in order to build war machines to hurt other people for selfish reasons. Representational governements - in my opinion - are less likely to get involved in funding terrorism. If the Middle East slowly converted to representational governments, the world would likely be a much better place.
As far as the economy, well this is my opinion. I think you have seen the peak of gas prices. As in Desert Storm, you will likely see gas prices drop on the first day of the war. NPR Market Watch pointed out that this time around, that might be happening a little earlier than in 1991. The stock market and the economy here are going to be in the pits for a while, but will recover. The Market is about as undervalued as it's going to get. When it goes up, it'll take about a half year to a year for the economy to follow. Now is the time to sell your real estate if you are thinking about doing that. When the Market goes up, this "irrational exhuberence" in the real estate market will go bust in much the same way that the tech market recently crashed. This is a broad pattern sometimes called "sector rotation." Basically investment money will find the best deal, wherever that is.
George W is going to have a tough time getting reelected. The economy will still be in the stink department come summer and fall of 2004. But the problem for the Democrats is that they have no vision and/or a true leader. They may squander a big opportunity if they don't find a good leader. Such is politics...
And that's my opinion, FWIW (a little more than 2 cents...
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- Bill
